Fact Forecast #1

United States will not invade Venezuela.

Consequently, the United States will not run Venezuela, not even temporarily, despite the unhinged claims of the US president. Save for an internal collapse of the regime, the stand-off between Venezuela and United States will continue on the verbal plane alone. The threat of "boots on the ground" rings hollow. Having escalated the situation by Maduro's abduction, the US has lost the element of surprise. The Bolivarian Army, such as it is, has been mobilised and even though it cannot stand up to the US military for long, it would now cost the Americans more dead and wounded to suppress it. It's a lot more likely that Trump is merely waiting for someone powerful enough inside the regime to break away from the rest and start collabrating with his administration.

Presidential campaign in Uganda, one of the most homophobic countries in the world, enters its final stage.

The forever incumbent Yoweri Museveni will use violence and intimidation to extend his control over the country into a fifth decade. Even though polls are pointing to an even race, the chance that the vote, held on 15th January, will bring change to the country is purely theoretical. In practice, Museveni won't fail to use every dirty trick in the book in order to preserve his hold on power, no matter what result is delivered by the electorate.

The harsh Anti-Homosexuality Act of 2023 , that punishes homosexuality by life imprisonment and in some cases by death, was primarily sponsored by local Evangelical congregations, which receive major financial support from their co-religionists in the US. The fate of gay people in Uganda could therefore be seen as a foreboding of what could happen in the United States, especially if president Trump needs to lean on more heavily on his religious supporters. Ironically enough, homosexuality is often condemned by Ugandans as an example of "Western immorality."

Ukraine's president Zelensky will meet with European allies in Paris on 6th January.

Don't expect any big news coming from this meeting, though. The peace plan proposed by the Trump administration, and then thoroughly revised by the Ukrainians, will go nowhere. Everybody involved, I presume, knows that full well, but the charade must be maintained for the sake of the man currently occupying the Oval Office (I used the word 'occupying' advisedly).

Wars do not end through negotiations, despite of what you may have heard. Wars end, negotiations follow. After all, it's a bit tricky to negotiate peace with someone who's trying to kill you at the same time, as should be painfully obvious. I'll be looking into the prospects of peace between Russia and Ukraine in more detail on Wednesday, in the first edition of a series of posts called Crystal Spitball.

Ukraine will continue the campaign against the Russian oil revenues, by targeting its shadow fleet and oil refineries, while the Russian army in Ukraine will make incremental advances along the frontline.

No strategic breakthrough, however, will occur on either side. The long attritional slog will go bloodily on for yet another week. In fact, it is most likely to go on for the whole year, with only occasional limited local offensives meeting with success on the Ukrainian side, and with Russian advances coming slow and at a high cost, even if steadily, given the Russian advantage in men and materiel.

A second phase of general elections in Myanmar will take place on 11th January.

The military junta in power since the coup d'etat in 2021 has organised a three stage electoral process whose purpose seems quite simple - to provide a democracy-colored fig leaf behind which to hide its naked refusal to give up power. The elections really aren't about who will govern in Myanmar. China has already picked the winner and it will be the junta and its political proxies.

The protests in Iran will continue to grow, turning more violent by the day.

Given the momentum of the protests so far and the regime's weakened state following the Twelve-Day war in summer 2025, it does not strike me as unreasonably hopeful to expect to that we might wake up one day next week to the news that the Moscow population of war criminals and human rights abusers has been expanded by the arrival of an ex-Ayatollah. #kianushsanjari