Fact Forecast #3

European Union and Ukraine will sign the 'Ukraine Support Loan' this week. The funds will be raised by releasing Euro bonds to the tune of €90bn, two thirds of which will be spent on the purchase of weapons and ammunition from European manufacturers. In other words, while the Europeans are helping Ukraine's war effort they're also investing in their military industry and supporting the EU economy. This is not just a win win (win squared), it's a cubic win.

The World Economic Forum meets in Davos this week. US President Trump, the European Commission president von der Leyen and the German Chancellor Merz will all be in attendance. We may safely expect Trump to continue pressing his attack on the Europeans over his scheme to annex Greenland.

I still believe it’s more likely that his actual goal is not to take control of Greenland (as I explained in the Forecast #2), but to take control of our attention spans. As long as Greenland is in the news, there will be less time left for tough questions about the peace in Ukraine and Gaza, the releasing of Epstein files or the creeping institution of a police state in America. Trump simply has to go on playing the tough guy on TV, the one thing he’s eminently qualified for.

An added bonus is that it forces yet another loyalty test on his MAGA base and the GOP politicians in the Congress. If the same people who for years screamed "America First" suddenly assent to this policy of aggression, it will mean two things. Firstly, that anything goes. And secondly, that America is sliding further into a world in which it doesn’t stand either for freedom nor democracy.

The Syrian government will begin consolidating their hold on the areas previously held by the Kurdish SDF, following a ceasefire agreement between the Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi and the Syrian president Ahmed Al-Shaara. This follows a rapid offensive by the army that pushed out the SDF fighters from the city of Aleppo and well beyond the Euphrates river. It seems the future integration of SDF into the national army is also part of the agreement.

The core of the current Syrian army consists of former rebel groups that deposed the Assad regime some 13 months ago. The revenue from the retaken oil-rich province of Deir al-Zor should significantly augment the financial situation of the Damascus government.

US president Trump will meet Ukraine’s president Zelensky in Davos for yet another round of inconclusive discussions whose only outcome will be to gain time for Putin. Trump might also try to blackmail Zelensky once more, making the continued US aid to Ukraine conditional on Zelensky's support for Trump's annexation of Greenland. And since the US president wouldn’t blink at trying to sell a glass of water to a drowning man, I actually think the risk of him tying Ukraine to the Greenland issue is not small.

The European Council will convene an emergency meeting on Thursday to discuss possible countermeasures in case the US goes ahead with its trade war over Greenland. Given Trump's record of chickening out when push comes to shove, it is still likelier than not that he will back down eventually, but only if the Europeans hit him back really hard .

President Trump may invoke the Insurrection Act in order to deploy troops in Minnesota. As the Americans observe the Martin Luther King Jr. Day this Monday, we could see an increase in anti-ICE protest activity across the country. Even a peaceful protest, as we have seen, has a good chance of being met by a violent response from the ICE officers and ensuing unrest could then be used by Trump as a pretext to deploy army troops in order to "protect federal law enforcement officers". Ominously, it has been reported Sunday that some 1500 active duty troops from Alaska have been ordered to prepare for a possible deployment in Minnesota .

As I forecast last week, the elections in Uganda were (fraudulently, no doubt) won by the incumbent, Yoweri Museveni. In power since 1986, Museveni will be 86 years old when his next term in office ends. On the night of the election, the police raided the home of Museveni’s rival, Bobi Wine. The popular singer, who has become the face of the opposition to Museveni’s regime, has managed to avoid arrest. The election took place under an internet black-out, which the government justified by the need to avoid the spread of “misinformation” . I wouldn’t be surprised if other supposedly democratic regimes start to utilize the same tactics in order to ensure a smooth election for the incumbent.