Global Forecast #8

UNITED STATES

Greenland has receded back into the windmills of Trump’s mind (as anticipated in Forecast #2). It will be back, though. Trump is the master of distraction. He knows that the threat of war with a NATO ally will always send the media into a tizzy. If the US does strike Iran this weekend, get ready for Greenland to promptly appear back on Trump's radar.

EUROPE

United Kingdom - The UK is considering new sanctions against Russia after confirming that Alexei Navalny was murdered by the Russian state. However, rather than imposing new sanctions, the best way to punish Russia would be to enforce the sanctions already in place by closing the Channel sea lanes to the shadow fleet that carries Russian oil. Nevertheless, if the British do adopt new sanctions, they should target the eight oil refineries in India, Turkey and China that still import Russian crude.

MIDDLE EAST

Iran - The Islamic Republic is bracing for perhapst the final showdown with the US and Israel this weekend. Reporting by Axios claims that unlike the so-called Twelve-Day War, this time the Trump administration is planning for a much wider campaign. This is unlikely, I believe. It would go very much against Trump's prefered type of military intervention: a purely aerial offensive, limited in time and scope, employing jets, bombers and ballistic missiles. Any claims to the contrary will be part of Trump's bluffing game, as it was in the case of Venezuela (see Forecast #1). If there's any "regime change" in Iran, its blueprint will be chosen in Tehran, not in Washington. Another Delta Force extraction of the regime's head, Maduro-style, is not feasible in Iran, given its size and the readiness of its military and security forces.

ASIA

Bangladesh - Having won the parliamentary election last week, the new prime minister Tarique Rahman will be expected to set up a Constitution Reform Council without delay. The task of this body would be to implement the July National Charter 2025, a set of constitutional reforms compiled by the internim government led by the Nobel-winning economist Muhamad Yunnus. The reforms, approved by a referendum, would put the country on a new, more democtratic and equitable path after the ouster of the despised prime minister Sheik Hasina, whor ruled the country between 2009 and 2024. The early signs, however, aren't good. It was expected that the newly elected MPs would be sworn in by pledging allegiance to both the current Constitution and the Charter, but the members elected for the victorious Bangladesh Nationalist Party have refused to take an oath on the Charter.

LATIN AMERICA

Cuba - The US blockade of the island has brought the country to the brink of collapse. A crippling shortage of fuel has caused blackouts that forced the majority of factories, hospitals and schools to shut down. The one thing that could still save the regime is the same thing that has brought it to its knees - corruption. To that end, the Cubans are attempting to strike some sort of a backroom deal, Venezuela style, with the Trump administration, which cares more about making money than democratic principles.

AFRICA

South Sudan - The clashes in Jonglei between the South Sudanese army and the Sudan People's Liberation Army threaten to reignate the civil war. Fought between the current president Salva Kiir's forces (now the official army of South Sudan) and the SPLA, led by the vice-president Kier Machar, the conflict lasted five years and came to an end in 2018 with an agreement that was never fully honored by either party. Around four hundred thousand people were killed and a quarter of the population became refugees.