Fact Forecast #2

The first round of presidential elections in Portugal will take place on 18th of January. The candidates from the two established, centrist parties - the Social Democrats and the Socialists - will struggle to avoid a run-off round against the leader of Chega, a far-right populist party. Even though Portuguese presidency isn't an executive office, given the recent political instability in the country (three parliamentary elections in three years) the result will be an important indication of what path the country will take in future.

The panic around a possible hostile takover of Greenland by the US will subside as the week goes on and the news cycle finds some new fresh hell to focus on.

After all, despite the shock value of his statements, president Trump has no realistic prospects for achieving his goal. As obsequious as most of his underlings are towards him, I don't believe they'd let him invade an ally's territory, ripping up NATO and possibly starting a conflict the American public clearly doesn't want. And since the Danes aren't selling, what other options has he got? The Greenlanders know very well they'll get a better deal from the Danes, especially as they can now make more demands of the government in Copenhagen that is eager to preserve status quo.

Trump will very likely forget about Greenland for another couple of months before he mentions it again. But mention it he will, since he must make it look as if he's doing something about it, to avoid displeasing his billionaire friends who have invested a lot of money in Greenland . I suspect, though, that in the end, he will stiff them just like he's done with so many of his previous business partners. The obstacles he'd have to overcome in order to take Greenland from Denmark are just too many and really not worth his bother.

The US is preparing to reveal the Board of Peace for Gaza, including an intermediate executive committee and a Palestinian technocratic committee, the setting up of which is a key aspect of the second phase of Trump's peace plan. However, I find it very unlikely the second phase of the plan will ever be fully implemented.

It would it involve the voluntary disarming of Hamas, preceded or followed (nobody knows) by the withdrawal of the IDF back to Israel, and the creation of an international stabilization force. None of the above would be easy to achieve, nor has anyone proposed a realistic way how to do so.

In the end, I wouldn't be surprised if we discover that this whole peace plan was only a cynical ploy of Netanyahu's to play for time, improve his image before the upcoming elections and prepare the army for finishing the job in 2027. Meanwhile, the genocide of Palestinians in Gaza will go on, at a slow yet awfully sure pace.

The US might take steps towards supporting the protesters in Iran , following a planned briefing on Tuesday of the country's top security officials with the president. Trump has let be known last week that if any protesters are killed by the regime, the US would intervene. So, we shall see if he intends to make good on his threat (I suspect not, but he's already bombed Iran once and wouldn't therefore find it hard to do it again.).

The future of Iran is hanging in the balance. If the protesters can keep up the momentum for another week, in spite of the atrocities visited upon them, there is a chance the government will lose the nerve first. However, the amount of bloodshed so far is worrying and could be a sign that only a protracted civil war will resolve the impasse, once the realization spreads among ordinary Iranians that if they give in to force now, they may never have another chance like this for a generation to come.

As I forecast last week, the United States has not invaded Venezuela.

President Trump has gone as far as praising the same people whom until a week ago he called narco-terrorists. The new, interm government led by Maduro's former vicepresident (and composed of the same Chavistas) has expressed its willingness to work with the US and also released a handful of political prisoners (hundreds remain in jail, however) and "because of this cooperation, I have cancelled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks." Sure, if you say so, Donald.

How did I guess it? Trump's almost always bluffing.

There's been this myth that Trump, unlike other politicians, actually does what he says. Sure, if you cherrypick the few examples that confirm this conclusion.

Which is not difficult at all given Trump's penchant for making over-the-top announcements and issuing pompous threats, something he's done nearly every day since his time as a failing real-estate developer and snake oil salesmen in the 80s and 90s.

Everything Trump does has inevitably been announced several times before, because unlike ordinary statesmen, who tend to keep their cards close to the chest, Trump just can't keep his mouth shut.

If you include all the claims and threats he's ever made, however, the picture changes dramatically. How many times, for example, did Trump threaten Putin just in the last year? How many times did he threaten huge tarrifs against China or Canada, only to quietly walk back most of what he'd said? What's happened with the US owning and running Gaza? And when will they start running Venezuela? Has the new Golden Age started yet? So many grand announcements, so very few things to show for them.

Take Trump's bombast together with the fact that the much-hyped US armada in the Caribbean consisted of only about 15k land troops, which are simply too few to invade a country the size of Venezuela, and it's not so difficult to imagine that Trump's threat of "Second Wave" was never serious.

As I forecast last week, the protests in Iran have reached historic proportionas and the Islamic Republic has responded with predictable brutality.

The despotic regime, led by a clique of Shia clerics, may soon be facing a nation-wide uprising on the scale of the Iranian Revolution of 1979, whose outcome was eventually hijacked by Ayatollah Khomeini, and which brought the clerics to power in the first place.

Coincidentally, this Friday marks 47 years since the day when the Shah went into exile. The significance of this date might work to buoy the protesters' morale and determation to hold out against the regime's thuggery. It won't be easy, however, as already the Iranian citizens appear to have been murdered in large numbers by the Basij militiamen, the police and other regime loyalists. As many as two thousand protesters may have lost their lives, according to some reports .

Again, exactly as I forecast last week, the meeting of the Coaltion of the Willing in Paris ended with a whimper.

For the best summary of what it means I recommend this article in The Times by Edward Lucas . As it's behind the paywall, I'll quote at least the opening paragraph for those without a subscription.

"We are promising forces we do not have, to enforce a ceasefire that does not exist, under a plan that has yet to be drawn up, endorsed by a superpower that is no longer our ally, to deter an adversary that has far greater willpower and we do. Other than that, Britain's defences are in great shape."